Overconfidence is for hot cognition scenarios

Hypothesis: Overconfidence effect was more of an evolutionary advantage in the ancestral environment, for raiding, hunting, fighting. But it's often a disadvantage in a technological setting, thus we get the planning fallacy, confirmation bias, etc. So going "beyond the impossible" might work for things like a bar brawl, but you don't want Kamina planning your long-term strategy.

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